I wasn't feeling this arc at first, but these last 4 chapters have been excellent, it really feels like we're building up to a compelling and realistic conflict. I don't think it's quite on the level of the first 2 arcs but it's some damn good stuff so far, and I have confidence that Yukimura will conclude the series well.
I definitely think the settlement will fall, Vinland Saga has always been about losing belief and fake paradises, like with how Askeladd lost belief in the legend of Artorious and Avalon, that one soldier who died and realised Valhalla didn't exist and how Canute stopped believing in God and Heaven. I think it'll be a bittersweet ending where Thorfinn returns to Iceland just like Thors had before the beginning of the story.
Something I'd like to mention about the rats in this chapter: this was actually foreshadowed back in chapter 177 where they had rats on the boat in Greenland.